In this brief series I'd like to see how the writings of Stephen Potter might
be applicable in the world of education -- and, in particular, educational
technology -- today. Writing predominantly in the 1940s and 50s, Potter codified
the art and science of "one-upmanship". In so doing, he not only inspired a
generation of undergraduates to put his theories to the test and invent new
"ploys" and "gambits", but inspired the making of a film ("School for
Scoundrels") and, perhaps more importantly, was taken seriously enough for the
term "one-upmanship" to be cited in academic books.
His books are concerned with the study of how to be "one up" on other people.
Although they are written very much tongue-in-cheek, they are clearly based on
real-life observation. I first came across them 40 years ago, and have read and
re-read them over the years for their humour. However, I find myself more and
more discovering that a number of aspects of modern life may be found in these
books, despite the elapsing of half a century, a fact which I believe puts them
on a par with other classics such as Parkinson's Law and The Peter Principle.
So, with no further ado, let's see what Potter has to offer the educational
ICT (Information & Communications Technology) subject leader in a school,
Local Authority or School District. For this to make as much sense as possible,
imagine yourself to be of a certain mindset: that of regarding every waking
moment as an opportunity to place yourself, or appear to be, in a superior
position to those around you. It may all sound too far-fetched, but as you read
on I think you will start to recognise people you know....
I have already written about this in the context of getting ICT embedded in a
school. In today's article, I should like to explore the wonderful world of
statistics.
I don't know if you have noticed, but every presentation by a Government
spokesperson consists of at least 5 minutes (and often much more), of
statistics. Whatever the topic under consideration, there is always a section
that goes something like this:
"Since we were elected X years ago we have more than doubled the number of Y,
and over the next 3 years we will increase this by a further Z percent".
We hear it all the time in presentations about educational ICT in the UK, but
it appears in every other branch of public affairs too.
The thing about statistics, though, is that so much depends on context, even
if the figures themselves are (a) accurate and (b) not subject to interpretation
-- both of which assumptions are highly dubious for a start. For example, if an
educational spokesperson were to announce that the Government will spend an
extra £10m on in-service training for teachers over the next 3 years, that
sounds impressive until you work out that, in the UK, that amounts to just over
£22 per head, or around £7.50 (approximately 15 USD) per teacher per year. (See
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1765 for
the statistics on which I have based this calculation.)
Now, there is nothing startling about this per se, but what
is interesting is the fact that it is completely disarming
unless you (a) happen to know the underlying stats and (b) can do lightning fast
calculations. The point is, by the time you have even had a chance to think
about it, the moment is gone, and the speaker is on to yet another "fact".
Interestingly enough, Stephen Potter recognised the power of this sort of
approach. In "One-upmanship" there is a chapter called "Doctorship", in which
Potter discusses the important topics of medical studentship, doctorship,
patientship and healthmanship. (I will be examining Potter's use of terminology
in a future article.) In a footnote he says:
"An effective statement in the right context can sometimes be: 'I have had
140 days' illness in my life.' Listeners are unable, without a lame pause for
calculation, to know whether to commiserate or admire."
So how does this apply in the context of educational technology leadership?
The answer is that in today's world, metrics are all-important. I personally
believe that that is how it should be, but it's easy to be fooled by statistics
which sound good but which, on closer examination turn out to be less than
desirable or even meaningless.
For example, I have no idea why any teacher would want their students to
receive thousands of comments about their work, because not only is that volume
of comments unhelpful, it is completely unmanageable, as I have already said
recently (see, for example, the October 2007 edition of Computers in Classrooms, which is
available via a free subscription).
I also think most RSS feed readership statistics raise more questions than
answers, and that (for my website at least) Technorati's statistics are
fictional. More importantly, the metrics given out by companies need further
scrutiny.
For example, a technical support company that claims that 99% of its
call-outs are rated excellent inspires no confidence in me whatsoever. If the
company has 10 employees, each doing one job per day, it means that over a two
week period one of those jobs or days will not be rated
excellent. That sounds quite a lot to me.
Similarly, a web hosting company that promises 99% "up time" may actually be
promising that you may have to put up with the site being "down" for 15 minutes
a week, assuming a 25 hour school week. Even if we leave school out of it, given
the global nature of communications, I don't want my website to
ever be down, not even for 5 minutes a week -- and even then, I
want it to be planned for so that I can put a notice up and warn people. Yes, I
know I am asking for the impossible, but my point is that statistics like "99%
up-time" are meaningless unless we understand the context in which they are
cited.
As an educational technology leader, you should at least know some important
statistics. When evaluating the quality of a school's ICT provision (at the
request of the Head of ICT or the Principal), I make a point of asking a number
of questions which involve facts and figures and which the Head of ICT should
either know or have immediate access to. It is astonishing how many don't. For
example, do you know if there is a difference in attainment in ICT between girls
and boys in your school? If so, is it significant? Do you know the cause? What
are you doing about it?
As well as knowing some basic figures, you should also know what they mean.
Statistics are often given a spurious veneer of credibility by the addition of a
graph. I recall one teacher showing me "before" and "after" charts to illustrate
how much his students had progressed over the last term.
"But what were the tests actually measuring?", I asked.
"I don't know", came the reply. "But the point is that whatever it is, it has
gone up."
Getting back to Stephen Potter, he was making a wry observation about the
cavalier use of statistics. Although he wrapped it up in a humorous, not to say
unlikely, package, he was alerting us all to be on our guard.
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